[ Pdf Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years Ã comoros PDF ] by Vaclav Smil æ Fundamental Change Occurs Most Often In One Of Two Ways As A Fatal Discontinuity, A Sudden Catastrophic Event That Is Potentially World Changing, Or As A Persistent, Gradual Trend Global Catastrophes Include Volcanic Eruptions, Viral Pandemics, Wars, And Large Scale Terrorist Attacks Trends Are Demographic, Environmental, Economic, And Political Shifts That Unfold Over Time In This Provocative Book, Scientist Vaclav Smil Takes A Wide Ranging, Interdisciplinary Look At The Catastrophes And Trends The Next Fifty Years May Bring This Is Not A Book Of Forecasts Or Scenarios But One That Reminds Us To Pay Attention To, And Plan For, The Consequences Of Apparently Unpredictable Events And The Ultimate Direction Of Long Term TrendsSmil First Looks At Rare But Cataclysmic Events, Both Natural And Human Produced, Then At Trends Of Global Importance The Transition From Fossil Fuels To Other Energy Sources Demographic And Political Shifts In Europe, Japan, Russia, China, The United States, And Islamic Nations The Battle For Global Primacy And Growing Economic And Social Inequality He Also Considers Environmental Change In Some Ways An Amalgam Of Sudden Discontinuities And Gradual Change And Assesses The Often Misunderstood Complexities Of Global Warming Global Catastrophes And Trends Does Not Come Down On The Side Of Either Doom And Gloom Scenarios Or Techno Euphoria Instead, Relying On Long Term Historical Perspectives And A Distaste For The Rigid Compartmentalization Of Knowledge, Smil Argues That Understanding Change Will Help Us Reverse Negative Trends And Minimize The Risk Of Catastrophe
Vaclav Smil is a very intelligent man This book is food for thought for any person who thinks about the future All scenarios are examined and the probabilities weighed Geophysical, geopolitical So what should we be worried about Global warming Asteroid collision Islamic fundamentalists Perhaps none of them, because the author shows how similar predictions and fears have been very wrong In the 1970s, the fear was global cooling But he does point out some possibilities that are grosly overlooked today Such as pandemics, caused by unknown poathogens or the resistance to antibiotics by bacteria Nitrogen release due to fertilizer ab use, releasing NO2, which is potent a greenhouse gas that C02 Asian countries completely ignoring the fact that the water tables are falling to a degree where the popoulation is in grave danger Soil erosion Deforestisation Degradation of the biosphere and the los
Smil is an intellectual with extensive knowledge in many fields, as apparent in this book A specialist in energy by origin, his comprehensive study of all aspects of the energy systems utilized by mankind has led him to many other related areas like the study of our biosphere and climate Global catastrophes goes even further by examining all kinds of potential big risks that could have large effects on civilization, ranging from natural disaster like asteroids, volcanoes and tsunamis to human induced calamities like nuclear war, pandemics and terrorism He also ventures into political and economic analysis on a global scale, trying to weigh the prospects of major political blocs like USA, China, Europe in the next 50 years.
While his wide ranging topical coverage would interest many as it pertains to not Fascinating analysis of trendsPredicting the future is still impossible, but science has gotten much better at forecasting it, at least to the extent that it is informed by statistics and probabilities Vaclav Smil speaks the truth as he sees it, according to mathematical information and indications For instance, he refutes the peak oil scenario, but asserts that society s transition to an economy that is less reliant on fossil fuel is long overdue, environmentally and politically Smil predicted the financial meltdown and the flu pandemic, so clearly he s on to something He delves into a variety of issues in this analysis of trends and calamities, from the economic decline of the U.
S to conflicts in Muslim cou